Friday, October 22, 2004

Interesting: a research center at U. of Maryland has released the results of a survey on voter beliefs in this election under the headline The Separate Realities of Bush and Kerry Supporters. The punchline seems to be that Bush and Kerry supporters have radically different opinions on a number of factual questions, i.e. what were the conclusions of the 9/11 commission, did Saddam have WMDs and so on.

Buried deeper in the report (page 14) is an interesting statistic: relative to Kerry the vast majority of Bush supporters are confused about Bush's stances on foreign policy. Bush, for example, opposes signing the Test Ban Treaty - but only 24% of his supporters think he does - versus 77% of Kerry supporters that correctly identify Kerry as supporting it. Similar statistics hold for positions on the land mine treaty, Kyoto, missile defense, and labor standards in trade agreements.

UPDATE: Er, I see Kos and Kevin Drum posted much the same thing - and I thought I was the first to the punch.

Incidentally, in the next post over Kevin Drum writes that the election would most likely go smoothly in Florida; his argument makes me wonder whether he took a probability course that taught him the difference between absolute and conditional probability:
...what are the odds that Florida's vote is going to be within 0.01% for two elections in a row?


At 4:36 PM, Blogger angela said...

not everyone has math skills like you, sasha :)


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